As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, there is growing interest in how the policies of candidates Trump and Harris might impact the stock market.
The two candidates are focusing on different economic and political issues, which is leading to varied movements in related stocks. In this post, we’ll delve into the recent trends of stocks associated with Trump and Harris, and examine how each candidate’s policies might affect the stock market in the future.
1. Recent Trends in Trump-Related and Harris-Related Stocks
Trump-Related Stocks: Focus on Traditional Energy and Finance
Trump has consistently pursued pro-business policies, and his strategy for this election remains similar. His policy direction primarily benefits companies in the energy, finance, healthcare, communication, and industrial sectors. These industries are likely to directly benefit from Trump’s deregulation and tax reduction policies.
Key Trump-Related Stocks
Deere & Company (DE)
- Industry: Agricultural Machinery
- Policy Theme: Support for Export Losses Due to Trade Wars
- Weekly Return: 7.3%
- Analysis: Deere is a global leader in agricultural machinery and has greatly benefited from Trump’s protective measures against trade war impacts. Trump prioritizes the agricultural sector and has introduced various support measures to strengthen his base among farmers. These policies have bolstered Deere’s stock performance.
General Motors (GM)
- Industry: Automotive
- Policy Theme: Relaxation of Emission Standards
- Weekly Return: 6.8%
- Analysis: Trump has been easing regulations in the automotive industry, particularly by relaxing emission standards. These policies have positively impacted companies like General Motors, which manufacture traditional internal combustion engine vehicles.
Ford Motor Company (F)
- Industry: Automotive
- Policy Theme: Relaxation of Emission Standards
- Weekly Return: 6.6%
- Analysis: Ford has also seen a rise in its stock price for similar reasons as GM. The relaxation of emission regulations has reduced the burden on Ford’s traditional vehicle production lines, enabling cost savings.
KeyCorp (KEY)
- Industry: Finance
- Policy Theme: Deregulation of Banking and Consumer Finance
- Weekly Return: 4.7%
- Analysis: The Trump administration is focusing on deregulating the financial sector to revitalize the banking industry. KeyCorp is benefiting from this deregulation, expanding its financial services and increasing profits.
Harris-Related Stocks: Focus on Clean Energy and Technology
Harris is committed to continuing and even strengthening the Biden administration’s environmental policies. Harris’s policies are expected to have a significant impact on sectors such as electric vehicles, clean energy, and renewable energy, and related stocks have recently shown strong performance.
Key Harris-Related Stocks
Tesla (TSLA)
- Industry: Electric Vehicles
- Policy Theme: Expansion of Electric Vehicles and Charging Infrastructure
- Weekly Return: 10.9%
- Analysis: As the leader in the electric vehicle market, Tesla is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of Harris’s policies to expand electric vehicles and clean energy infrastructure. Harris plans to promote the adoption of electric vehicles through various incentives and the expansion of charging infrastructure, which directly influences Tesla’s stock price.
Enphase Energy (ENPH)
- Industry: Clean Energy
- Policy Theme: Development of Renewable Energy
- Weekly Return: 7.3%
- Analysis: Enphase Energy, a company providing solar power solutions, is likely to play a significant role in Harris’s renewable energy development policies. Harris’s policies are expected to promote the spread of clean energy, leading to a continuous rise in Enphase Energy’s stock price.
Sunrun (RUN)
- Industry: Clean Energy
- Policy Theme: Development of Renewable Energy
- Weekly Return: 3.1%
- Analysis: Sunrun, a leading provider of residential solar systems, is one of the major beneficiaries of Harris’s environmental energy policies. Harris aims to expand renewable energy, and Sunrun’s products and services align perfectly with this policy direction.
Johnson Controls (JCI)
- Industry: Industrial
- Policy Theme: Improvement of Energy Efficiency in Commercial Buildings
- Weekly Return: 5.0%
- Analysis: Johnson Controls, which provides solutions to improve energy efficiency in commercial buildings, will play a significant role in Harris’s energy efficiency improvement policies. Harris plans to introduce various support measures to reduce energy consumption in commercial buildings, contributing to the expansion of Johnson Controls’ market.
2. Analysis of the 2024 Election Landscape: Intense Competition and the Importance of Swing States
The competition between Trump and Harris in the 2024 election is extremely tight. Recent polls indicate that while Trump has a slight lead, Harris is closely following. The outcome in the so-called Swing States is expected to be the key factor that will determine the winner of this election.
Trend of Trump and Harris’s Approval Ratings
Trump’s approval ratings are traditionally higher in regions where the Republican Party is strong, while Harris is gaining strong support in urban areas, among younger voters, and women. Harris, in particular, is securing support from younger and environmentally conscious voters by emphasizing policies focused on environmental issues and social equality.
| State | Trump Approval (%) | Harris Approval (%) | Gap (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 48.0 | 46.8 | +1.2 |
| Pennsylvania | 47.6 | 47.4 | +0.2 |
| Michigan | 46.7 | 48.2 | -1.5 |
As shown in the table, the approval ratings in Swing States are very close, and the results in these regions will be a crucial factor in determining the direction of the election.
3. In-Depth Analysis of Each Candidate’s Economic Policies
Trump’s Economic Policies: Creating a Pro-Business Environment
Trump has consistently pursued pro-business policies throughout his term, and he intends to maintain this approach in the upcoming election. Trump’s economic policies focus on deregulation, tax cuts, and energy independence, which are expected to positively impact traditional industries.
- Deregulation: Trump supports the deregulation of the financial sector to allow banks and large corporations to operate more freely. This is expected to provide significant benefits to the financial industry and large manufacturers.
- Tax Cuts: Trump plans to encourage more investment by U.S. companies through corporate tax cuts. This will particularly benefit the manufacturing and energy sectors.
- Energy Independence: Trump is expanding support for the oil and gas industry to achieve U.S. energy independence. This is expected to allow traditional energy companies to continue their growth.
Harris’s Economic Policies: Emphasizing Clean Energy and Social Equality
Harris is determined to continue and even strengthen the Biden administration’s policies. Harris’s economic policies focus on expanding clean energy, promoting social equality, and reducing healthcare costs.
- Expansion of Clean Energy: Harris aims to revolutionize the U.S. energy structure by expanding renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. This is expected to lead to significant growth in the clean energy industry.
- Promoting Social Equality: Harris has proposed various economic support measures for low- and middle-income groups, with a focus on addressing housing and healthcare issues. These policies are part of an effort to promote social equality while laying the foundation for economic growth.
- Reducing Healthcare Costs: Harris has proposed a variety of policies to reduce healthcare costs in the U.S., with a particular focus on strengthening healthcare support for the elderly and low-income individuals. This could lead to significant changes in the healthcare industry.
4. The Impact of the Election on the Stock Market
The 2024 election is not just a political event; it is a crucial period that will have a significant impact on the economy and the stock market. The direction of the stock market could change dramatically depending on the election results, and understanding how each candidate’s policies will affect the market is essential.
Market Outlook if Trump Wins
If Trump wins, it is likely that the existing deregulation and pro-business policies will continue. This will create an environment in which traditional industries and energy companies can sustain their growth. The financial industry will also continue to benefit from deregulation.
Market Outlook if Harris Wins
On the other hand, if Harris wins, significant changes can be expected in the clean energy and clean technology sectors. Harris plans to expand investment in renewable energy and the electric vehicle industry, which will positively impact related companies. However, traditional energy industries and companies that rely on deregulation may face challenges.
Conclusion: Investment Strategies Ahead of the 2024 Election
As the 2024 election approaches, investors need to pay attention to stocks related to each candidate’s policies. Since Trump and Harris have different policy directions, it is crucial to accurately understand how each candidate’s policies will impact the stock market.
Monitoring changes in the candidates’ approval ratings and the results in Swing States, and adjusting your investment portfolio accordingly, will be a wise strategy. This election will have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and stock market, so investors should carefully analyze the market situation and respond accordingly.
This blog post has explored the trends of Trump and Harris-related stocks, the election landscape, and each candidate’s economic policies. For those interested in stock investment, I hope this information helps you predict future market trends and develop effective investment strategies.